RUSSIA (Russia is forecast to see 1.7% GDP growth in 2020):
Russia’s GDP growth in 2020 will remain below 2%, if there is a major leap in oil prices then the GDP growth rate could increase significantly in 2020.
Russia GDP growth is projected to be 1.7%. Increased infrastructure spending and new & refurbished public housing spending will propel construction and economic growth in 2020. The Russian VAT tax rate has increased from 18% to 20%. Construction activity in Russia is slowly moving forward as we move further into 2020. Russian voters gave President Putin big win in late March, almost 70% of the electorate vote to give him his 4th term as President.
In Moscow & a number of other major Russian cities a huge ongoing repair, modernization & renovation effort is ongoing to literally 1,000’s of apartments & hi-rise tower blocks built in the 1960’s & 1970’s. This huge ongoing project(s) could last up to five years to complete & cost in excess of $7 billion.
Construction inflation for 2020 is forecast to be in the 4.1% to 4.4% range. The Russian construction market is forecast to experience some moderate growth in the oil / gas sector & restrained growth in the commercial / housing construction sector in 2020. It is worth noting that the Russian economy is similar in size to Italy, population 59 million, which is currently the 3rd largest European Union country. Russia’s population is 147 million.
Russia recently became the 2nd largest oil producer, behind the US, producing more than ten million barrels of oil a day. Unemployment in the construction industry is somewhere between 10% & 15%, unemployment in other industries is forecast to be 4.5% to 5.2% for 2020.