ASIA (Asian countries are projected to see a rebound in GDP growth in the 4th Q of 2021)
Asia Pacific is set to rebound in 4th Q of 2021, China will do well in the 4th Q of 2021, Malaysia experiencing a COVID spike, and unfortunately India is experiencing a COVID tsunami (millions of casualties), however this situation is showing signs of improvement.
We are starting to see positive signs that the COVID-19 epidemic is starting to decline in most Asian countries. China’s economy and construction sector has recovered quickly, and rigorous lockdowns and population tracing policies checked the spread of the virus. The Chinese government also funded billions of dollars on future infrastructure projects.
Pre-COVID-19, almost a fifth of the world’s GDP originated out of China. The once buoyant Chinese economy slowed down rapidly in 2020. GDP growth in 2021 is forecast to be 5% to 6%.
China’s real estate house of cards could be brought down by real estate firm Evergrande defaulting on its debt, Evergrande is the world’s most indebted company, this could send ripples throughout the global financial market.
China’s factories and production facilities are back in business as we transition into the 4th Q of 2021. The Chinese economy & construction sector has experienced a growth spurt in the last 3 months. However this spurt has started to slow down in the last 4 weeks.
Hong Kong may well present future challenges to China once COVID-19 has been resolved, social unrest does not appear to be waning. China has changed the one country, two systems previous approach, this could result in mass demonstrations and could stymie future construction & economic activity.
India now ranks # 5 in the economy league table, larger than both the UK & France, look for 2021 GDP to be between 5% & 6% once the COVID virus is fully contained, which could take another 6 months. Unfortunately the Indian economy has started to slow down rather rapidly in the last 3 months as a result of the COVID pandemic lockdowns. Infrastructure construction is the only good thing to report on at this time.
In general the Asian construction sector dealt well with the effect of COVID-19 and is currently set to get beyond the last twelve difficult months. Most countries are starting to increasingly move forward again as we transition into the 4th Q of 2021 with perhaps the exception of India.
Japan has weathered the COVID-19 reasonably well with just over 1,700,000 confirmed cases and close to 18,000 deaths. Japan’s construction sector is forecast to see minimal growth going forward.
Vietnam successfully handled the pandemic crisis, with very few confirmed cases. Construction work never stopped during COVID-19, however there has been a significant spike in confirmed cases in the last 6 weeks.
Indonesia, South Korea, the Philippines, Cambodia, Bangladesh and Laos have all had COVID-19 issues, it appears they are dealing with the COVID-19 crisis relatively well. COVID-19 will regrettably impede some Asian economies and construction sectors somewhat in the 4th Q of 2021, however recent indications from this region of the world is that the construction sector is starting to see some significant improvements.