Things we will see in the 1st Q of 2021:
USA, CANADA & MEXICO are forecast to see nominal GDP growth in the range of 2.4% to 3.2%:
The US with 330 million citizens contains close to 5% of the world’s population, yet accounted for more than 340,000 deaths or 20% of the world’s fatalities attributed to COVID-19.
Joe Biden will be the 46th President of the United States. He will be sworn into office Mid-January 2021.
A full US economic recovery will take at least 6 to 12 months to return to pre-COVID-19 levels, the good news is that the economies of USA, CANADA & MEXICO are starting to see growth as we move into 2021. In the USA, all of US States are now allowing construction work to proceed. Safety & worker protection has really become an important issue on construction sites in the last year.
Oil & Gas Owners / Operating Companies are continuing to slash 2021 CAPEX budgets anywhere from 10% to 50%, unfortunately, this will translate into reductions in staffing levels across the Petro-Chemical, Energy & Power sectors.
The Canadian economy and construction sector was severely impacted by the COVID-19 virus, this and low oil demand / deteriorating oil prices, the COVID-19 virus will pass in the next 3 to 6 months, however, low oil prices and demand are forecast to remain in 2021. A full economic recovery is forecast to take a couple of years, look for the construction to remain flat for the next 3 to 9 months.
Like its’ two northern neighbors, the Mexican economy and construction sector struggled with the COVID-19 pandemic. Mexico reported more than 1.3 million confirmed cases and over 120,000 deaths attributed to the virus. This together with low oil prices in 2020 stymied the Mexican economy and construction sector. The COVID-19 pandemic will eventually be contained, this may take at least 6 months to achieve. $40 to $45 a barrel oil prices are forecast to remain in place in 2021 which is not particularly beneficial to the Mexican economy or its construction sector. A sustained economic recovery will take anywhere from 2 to 3 years to achieve.