USA, CANADA & MEXICO are forecast to see between 2.2% to 2.9% GDP growth in 2nd Q of 2026.
The US continues to be the # 1 economy, containing the largest related construction sector in the world, with its close to a $31 trillion economy that powers its unsurpassed technology know-how & creativity. The US Construction sector has the knowhow & worldwide influence. In 2026, the value of this market is between $2.3 & $2.7 trillion, by far the largest construction market in the world.
The US Jones Foreign Shipping Act is being temporally rescinded for 50 days to allow non-US tankers to export US oil & LNG to overseas locations, which should help in reducing ocean freight costs. A new 170,000 barrel a day oil refinery has been announced that will be located on a 250-acre lot, close to Brownsville, Texas. Construction is forecast to start in the 2nd Q of 2026. This is the first new grassroots refinery to be built in the USA in more than 50 years. This could bring 1,000’s of new jobs and additional investment to the South Texas region.
The outlook for the US construction sector in the next 2 or 3 quarters appears promising. There are a couple of headwinds, such as the Iran conflict, shortages of skilled workers, the impact of US tariffs & ongoing conflict in Europe. The US construction industry prediction for 2026 indicates restrained growth, perhaps 2.3% to 2.7% increase from the previous year. AI Data centers, Semiconductor / microchip facilities, Pharma & Hi-Tech & Manufacturing, Power / Pipeline projects & Infrastructure projects, will be the projects being undertaken in 2026. Housing, commercial office, shopping malls etc., will see a slight decline in 2026. US tariffs on imported materials into the USA is a real issue, these tariffs on steel, cooper, aluminum & other construction materials & components are averaging out to be in the 12.5% to 15% range. This tariff issue is still not fully implemented & is subject to negotiation & change - it seems on a weekly basis.
More than 300,000 US baby boomers are retiring each month, 10% to 20% of these individuals were part of the US construction sector. The question is: who is going to replace them? Will we always have this shortage of skilled workers?
The 2026 US / Canadian / Mexico Construction market is estimated to be in the $3.10 to $3.20 trillion range, an increase of 2.7% from 2025 (Year to Year), still the world’s largest construction market. In the USA, construction cost increases have returned to more customary levels since the conclusion of COVID in the range of 2.5% to 3.1%.
Canada’s construction market is projected to grow to C$285 billion by the end of 2026. Canada’s construction activity in the 1st Q of 2026 is forecast to expand marginally by 1.6% to 1.9% over 2025 levels. Construction material costs are set to increase by 2.2% to 2.7% and construction labor will see an increase of 2.5% to 2.9% in 2026. The Canadian infrastructure, civil engineering, mining and Oil & Gas construction sectors are experiencing a pick-up as we move further into 2026.
The Canadian dollar is still relatively weak compared to the US dollar, one Canadian dollar is 0.73 to the US dollar, which it has been in this range for the last year or so. The thinking was that the US tariffs would stymy the Canadian economy more than it has. Tariffs on timber / lumber products, steel & aluminum have cause Canadian suppliers some problems, but perhaps not as bad as some commentators forecasted. Current Canadian construction growth rate is between 1.9% & 2.5%; construction unemployment is between 7% & 7.7% range.
Mexico’s construction sector is forecast to experience positive growth in 2026, driven by infrastructure and a number of petro-chemical capital projects.
The number 1 question for the USA, Canada & Mexico construction sectors is how long the Iran conflict will last and will it drive up inflation in the next 3 to 6 months.
