THINGS WE WILL SEE IN THE 4th Q OF 2022:
USA, CANADA, and MEXICO are forecast to see between 1.9% and 2.6% GDP growth in 2022, a lower growth rate than in previous years.
Construction inflation/escalation in the USA is between 8.8% and 9.2%, Canada is seeing between 7.7% and 8.2%, an 18-year high, and Mexico is seeing between 8.7% and 9.2%, a 20-year high. This could be a problem as we transition into 2023.
Construction-related materials such as copper (cable/pipe), structural steel, rebar, piping (PVC, CS, and SS), lumber, and plywood are starting to rise again in the last couple of weeks related to the Russian/Ukraine war, supply chain issues, and inflation.
More than 75% of US, Canadian, and Mexican contractors have experienced delays in obtaining construction materials, and in many cases, have paid premiums to procure them. Plywood/OSB, roofing, rebar, steel products, plumbing/electrical components, and other basic construction materials remain in short supply in all 3 countries, some materials are showing signs of declining.
Currently, in the US, we are seeing $3.75 for a gallon of gasoline and $5.50 a gallon for diesel, approximately 70% higher than a year ago. The prices are expected to increase in the upcoming winter months.